دراسة أثر تقلبات سعر الصرف على التضخم - دراسة حالة الجزائر -2016-1990

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the impact of exchange rate changes on inflation rates in Algeria during the period 1990-2016, and the extent to which the Algerian economy can regain equilibrium once an inflationary shock occurs. On the other hand, the impact of inflation on economic growth and unemployment has been investigated as part of the monetary policy assessment. To achieve this goal, econometric methodology has been used: a unit root and cointegration tests were employed to check the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between inflation and the exchange rate, an error correction model has been estimated to determine the explanatory factors for short and long-term inflation, as well as the VAR approach, which allows us to explain the role and significance of the shocks in variables in explaining inflation fluctuations. The study concluded that the contribution of nominal exchange rate movements was weak in explaining the inflationary pressures which the Algerian economy has been exposed. Thus, there is an incomplete or partial effect of foreign exchange rates on the price index. Moreover, there is a weak relationship between inflation, economic growth and unemployment, which manifested through a weak correlation. Keywords: exchange rate, inflation, impulse response functions, vector autoregressive model, cointegration.